In this article, The Class has collaborated with the European Association for International Education (EAIE) and StudyPortals to analyse the current trends in international student mobility to Europe.

We first explore the trends in admission in European higher education institutes with a nod to the impact of the Ukraine war on the same. Following this, we move on to how equipped are accommodation providers to address the growing rise in student numbers. Finally, we look at StudyPortals’ key insights that reflect the countries and cities which are high on study interest radar, thus enabling us to be better equipped for incoming students. 

The University Side: Reflections on international student admission trends in 2022

On the basis of a survey exercise conducted by the European Association for International Education (EAIE) in the first quarter of 2022 – which garnered responses from 218 distinct higher education institutions situated in 33 of the 49 countries of the European Higher Education Area (EHEA) – it’s possible to discern a few key insights into international student admission trends and outlooks in the EHEA for the coming academic year: notably, optimism and solidarity.

Optimism is evident in the fact that 2022 application numbers were either similar to or higher than 2021 levels for a strong majority (87%) of the EAIE survey respondents. Further, some 57% of respondents anticipated higher enrolment numbers in September 2022 than they had seen in September 2021. Indeed, some 92% of respondents expected their international student enrolment numbers to meet or exceed those of 2021.

Solidarity is evident in the many different ways that higher education stakeholders in Europe have responded to the special needs of Ukraine since the start of the Russian aggression in that country in late February.

A solid half (50%) of the EAIE survey respondents indicated they expected to see increases in enrolment by Ukrainian students in 2022-2023, and just over half (56%) said their institutions were easing admission and recognition processes for Ukrainian students or other students displaced by that crisis. Interestingly, a strong message of commitment to uphold non-discriminatory policies in relation to Russian student applications was also evident from the EAIE survey exercise.

What will the future bring? While there are signals from the World Health Organisation now in September 2022 that the COVID-19 pandemic may be winding down, it will be important to monitor its lingering effects as well as the potential for significant economic and political disruption from the far from resolved war in Ukraine. 

The Accommodation Side: How prepared are PBSAs to meet the growing demand in accommodation with rising student mobility?

Indeed, what will the future bring? In a post-pandemic world, as countries open their borders again and universities commence in-person teaching, how are the accommodation providers  meeting demand? Let’s explore. 

In early March, The Class Foundation launched our annual Spring Student Demand Survey to gauge various trends in student housing across Europe. In particular, the survey measured changes in student bookings, room prices, and occupancy rates. We surveyed operators managing a total of 48k student beds across Europe. 

We learned that, predictably, as pandemic restrictions eased around the world, PBSA bookings generally rose in step with the resumption of international student mobility. 

For two years, uncertainty and limitations around international travel made it increasingly difficult for these students to resume their studies. However, in the 2021/22 academic year, with the end of the pandemic was within sight, resulted in international students rushing back into Europe, and so, the number of PBSA room bookings also increased. 

Furthermore, for many international students returning to Europe, PBSA was the most appealing housing option. Rather than navigating complex and unfamiliar residential markets, these students opted for the ease of online bookings that come with PBSA. This increased demand for PBSA, coupled with a limited supply, has led to a rise in room prices. 

To further the point on limited supply, we found that most European markets are at or near full capacity. The reasons for this being:

1. the return of international students post-pandemic
2. students’ growing preference for PBSA housing to enhance their university experience
3. a lack of other high-quality, accessible, and affordable traditional housing options
   

In the coming years, surveyed PBSA partners plan growth across most Western European countries. Portfolio expansion is projected to be somewhere between 15-25%. Italy leads the way among surveyed investors, with a predicted growth of over 40% in the next 3-5 years. However, the supply woefully falls short of the supply.

For instance, in the case of the Netherlands, universities are advising international students to not come if they have not secured accommodation prior to arrival. There is a pipeline of around 1,500 beds in the Netherlands while Kences predicts we are short of 26,000 student homes, with 5,200 in Amsterdam itself.

The Dutch National Action Plan, which came into effect in September 2022, was signed by public and private stakeholders (including The Class Foundation) involved in student housing in the Netherlands. The plan aims to holistically tackle the student housing shortage from all angles.

The case of the Dutch National Action plan suggests that the need is for better preparation when tackling student housing shortage. Further, one of the critical factors that can enable this is to have estimates from universities about their incoming students, in order for student accommodation to be more prepared. When universities fail to communicate with developers and operators, housing crises seem not only likely, but inevitable.

Moreover, it is also important to follow the trends regarding which destinations are more attractive to students to gauge an estimate of needed supply. This bring us to the final section. 

Why we need to start predicting where students will study earlier

Using lead indicators might be a solution to this problem. We know that study interest data predicts enrolments, one to two years into the future (Note: Studyportals pageviews data is highly correlated with HESA enrolment data. Our research paper found a 0.921 rank correlation with the country level and a 0.836 rank correlation with the institution level.

‍These results are in line with past findings). Having this early signal on how enrolments will fluctuate for particular cities can be a great ally to universities that want to ensure a great student experience on their campus, to cities that want to predict the pressure on their local infrastructure, accommodation providers that need to predict if they need to expand their offer, and for investors choosing where to develop new purpose-build housing for students. 

In a recent research report, we saw that demand for certain European destinations has significantly grown over the past 12 months, especially for destinations such as Italy (+45%), Portugal (+28%), or Poland (+28%), while others saw contractions. Meanwhile, interest is not growing equally across all cities, with for instance Austria growing at a fast rate (+9 p.p.), while other European capitals seeing a decline in interest, such as Copenhagen (-5.6 p.p.).

Just this data alone should be enough to start making plans for how Vienna plans to accommodate a growing number of students in 2023, or how to transform some of the declining demand for Copenhagen to serve new audiences, with different needs and priorities. 

Predicting is better than guesswork, and planning is better than surprises, so becoming more data-driven in predicting how the number of students in different cities will fluctuate over the coming years, will empower those who build this capability to become more anti-fragile in their strategies.

Conclusion

After being asked to radically transform how they teach and digitalise learning in record time, universities now have a different set of challenges ahead: Will the students return to campuses, in how large numbers, and most importantly, where and what demands they will place on existing housing and infrastructure?

With a few countries and cities struggling at the moment to find accommodation solutions for incoming international students, knowing the scope of the problem earlier is critical. 

Yet, we know that there is an existing communication gap between universities, cities and accommodation providers and investors, making it difficult to be proactive and solve challenges before they become problems. Furthermore, housing is not something that can be easily supplied, at a moment’s notice, so being able to know what the future holds is of the essence.

So, what’s the solution? Effective communication between city planners, universities, developers, and operators is a strong first step – but a full toolkit also includes better feedback loops, more collaborative strategic planning, deeper long-term institutional investment, and a renewed commitment to public-private partnerships.

Lastly, due to the impact of the Ukrainian war, as energy costs continue to raise, we need to find solutions to keeping student housing accessible for all by way of keeping it affordable.